The Limits of Drawing the Dot-to-Dot

It’s critical in a digital marketing world to know what in your media mix is giving you the biggest bang for your buck, be it Social Media, organic search, paid search, direct mail, TV, smoke signals, whatever. Here’s the problem.

Most agencies and their clients don’t (or can’t) track all the touches that precipitated that purchase conversion. For example, you see a TV ad about a new digital camera. You go online and do a little research on CNET, read reviews, ask friends on Facebook, and then make your purchase decision. What the company that makes the camera actually sees is really just that last part. You Googled the camera make and model, found a reseller, and purchased. However, that’s just the last act in the play. How do we draw the dot-to-dot back to the TV ad that started the show?

I have just one recommendation: Don’t shift budget allocations by more than a few percentage points at a time. If you think you’re buddy’s blog is the #1 driver of sales and put your entire budget into ad placement on that blog, you’ll be shooting yourself in the foot.

Rather, shift your budget around gently and watch the numbers carefully with each change. That will give you a much better determination of the right mix of activities.

According to an article on Search Engine Land by Efficient Frontier’s Director of Analytics, Siddharth Shah:

The science of attribution and optimization is continuously evolving and I expect that in a few years there will be solutions that come close to solving the media mix problem. Until then, use the technology and the science with a good dose of judgment.

I think that’s well put.